Fantasy Baseball Advice

It’s easy to look back at a league you just lost in and come up with several ‘What ifs’ that would’ve led your team to victory.

I’m going to take a look at one of my expert league teams that sucked it - coming in 8th out of 12 in a league set up by Brock for Broglio and co-won by Tim Dierkes of RotoAuthority and Tim McLeod of Rotorob.  Rotonomics finished a disappointing 10th, obviously hobbled by their Timlessness.

I finished with 57.5 points.  The co-winners finished with 95 points.  How much of these 37.5 points could I have reduced with just a little draft luck.

Below are my picks along with hindsight grades and some info on whomelse was on the board.  Just making three different decisions - all three near coin-flip - would’ve netted an estimate 26 extra points and could’ve put me in contention.

• Pick #8 - Jeff Francouer.  Swap with Jason Bay who actually ranked higher based on my Point Shares but I moved him down b/c he fucked me with moose antlers the previous year.  Point gain (using Point Shares) is 9.82 points (Bay was +4.11, Frenchy was -5.71)
• Pick #9 - Juan Pierre.  Swap with Jacoby Ellsbury who went a few picks later would’ve netted 6.09 points (+1.48 vs. -4.61)
• Pick #14 - Khalil Greene.  Swap with fellow Dhyslexic SS Jhonny Peralta who went a pick later nets 10.29 points (1.86 vs. -8.61).

The rest of the blame would have to go to FA pickups. Of the top 40 most valuable players drafted after #200, I had two (Fuentes and Torres) and traded Fuentes soon after for Rickie Weeks (ugh).  RotoAuthority drafted McLouth (5th most valuable with an ADP greater than 200) and picked up Cliff Lee (MVP > 200 ADP) and Aubrey Huff (6th most valuable > 200 ADP).  RotoRob didn’t score with FA hitters but had Ervin Santana (3rd most valuable) + drafted bargains (Roy Halladay & Mariano Rivera) + a great trade (Johan Santana’s great 2nd half for a crappy 2nd half from Utley - the trade was w/ me BTW…).   (To see a list of the top bargains of 2008, see here.)

So there you have it.  A draft with four great picks out of the first 6 ruined by an awful 7th-9th, a coin-flip in the 14th, and missing out on just about every impactful FA.  And if the three picks above didn’t suck so much, I wouldn’t have had to trade Johan’s great 2nd half (2.10 ERA in 110 IP) for Utley’s mediocre one (46/8/35 in 247 ABs).

In an offseason of questionable moves for the Royals, they just one-downed themselves.  Or is it one-upped? Coco Crisp was traded to the Royals for Ramon Ramirez. This trade says more about the state of baseball than much else. The Sox send a fourth OF/bench player to the Royals where he’ll be a starter and major key to their offense. Surplus is nice when you have it, ain’t it, Epstein? If the trade were going the other way, I can only assume a middle man for the Sawx is about a number two starter on the Royals. Anyway, here’s some 2009 fantasy baseball implications for this trade:

Coco Crisp - Coco Crisp will be a starter again. For the Ministry of Silly Names, this is a great day. For everyone else, this means a very cheap potential 15/20/.280 hitter has just entered the league.  Also, with the peasant Royals, Crisp will prolly be the leadoff man, but don’t think that means much in the way of runs. David DeJesus was their primary leadoff man in 2008 and he only scored 70 runs.

Mark Teahen - This trade pushes Teahen to the bench.  Not a big loss for fantasy.

Ramon Ramirez - Has solid stuff for a middle reliever and I would consider grabbing him late in deep AL-Only leagues if you’re a Mr. B. Don’t go crazy though, he’s not really a mixed league candidate just yet.

Justin Masterson - Boom goes the dynamite!  Or is it boom goes his fantasy value? With the addition of Ramirez, Masterson could be heading into the rotation or the Sawx might use him for trade bait while his value is high. Everything I’ve read on Masterson says he’s a solid middle reliever who could be exploited in the rotation. Personally, I think a Sawx starter has value in the right matchups, even if he’s Danny Masterson little brother.

Back in late March, when the season was just about to get underway, Rudy and I decided to hold a contest where you, the Razzball reader, were given an opportunity to challenge the mighty, all-powerful, all-knowing, all-everything ‘perts, Rudy and Grey. The contest was simple in its design. Choose the winners of the postseason awards, the pennants and the World Series. The chads have been checked and the votes tallied. The results show you won, quite easily I might add. All of you. Rudy and I got none right out of all of our picks. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Less than 1. To be honest, I’m not even sure how one goes about not getting one single one correct. Actually, I think that’s a feat in itself. Now only if we tried to get them all wrong… But then we prolly would’ve got them all right.

The Padres did not win the World Series as I predicted. They finished with the third worst record in baseball. The lowly Nats and Mariners were the only ones to best worst them.

Verlander did not win the AL Cy Young as Rudy predicted. If there was an award for the opposite of the Cy Young, Verlander had a shot at that.  My Bedard pick doesn’t look much better in retrospect.

You, the Razzball reader, were not immune to ludicrous selections either. Someone foresaw a Mariners/Padres series and an AL MVP of Adrian Beltre. Presumably, they are (were?) a Mariners fan.  Someone else thought Peavy would win the AL Cy Young. If Peavy were traded in the middle of 2008 and this came true, I would’ve shaved my mustache.  Finally, someone thought Andruw Jones would win the NL MVP. Again, we got none right, so who am I to judge?

So who did the best at beating us out of all of youse? Drumroll…

Out of twenty-two possible questions….

With a whopping three correct answers….

Bob!

Woot-woot, Bobster! Woot-woot, Bobster! Woot– Okay, before you get too full of yourself, you also put an ineligible Edinson Volquez down for NL ROY… Then again, some members of the BBWAA did the same. (BTW, don’t look at that BBWAA Geocities-ish site too long. It’ll burn your computer screen and retinas.)

Congratulations, Bob. I’ll be contacting you about where I should send the $50 Amazon gift certificate. Or comment below, you big winner you.

I don’t want to push Lou’s post Fantasy Baseball, the 1960s down too far, so I’m going to keep this quick and to the point. Something on the Wide World of the Interwebs got my goat today, and nobody, sir, gets my goat. Keith Law, ESPN dooode, alerted me that Daily Kos called a baseball blogger bourgeois. Alliteration in lieu of wit? Fo sho! Not to mention, only pretentious twits use the word bourgeois. Why the chin music on a baseball blogger? Because the Daily Kos wants someone other than that baseball blogger to win some $10K blogging scholarship that is voted on by you. (What qualifications do you have to award a scholarship? None. Which makes you perfectly qualified, I suppose.) So to all baseball bloggers out there that are reading this, take the initiative and post about this. To all of Razzball Nation that is reading this, you have but one choice in this election, Dave Cameron, who I don’t know from heffin’ Adam, for a $10K blogging scholarship. Vote now and vote often!

The Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame has spent an unhealthy amount of time identifying the best fantasy seasons, careers, statistics, Fantasy All Stars, and Hall of Famers of the fantasy era. As mentioned ad nauseam, the fantasy era began in 1980, and thus many great players of the 1980’s fall just short of enshrinement since their careers commenced in 1979 or earlier. This, along with the fact it’s just plain fun, has led us down the path of looking back in time, decade by decade, for the best fantasy players in baseballs history. We’ll be following reverse chronological order with the 1960s taking center stage today. As you may recall, earlier in October. Joe Morgan was crowned best fantasy player of 1970s.

The tail end of the 1960s is famous for its strong favoritism towards the pitcher. In 1968 the average NL batter had a slash line of .243 / .300 / .341. The AL batters were worse off still - .230 / .297 / .339 and the league’s runs scoring was at its lowest point in the 20th century. Throughout the decade, as one moves closer to the 1970s, stolen bases and batting average were on the decline, though home runs were on the rise:

This created an environment where the fantasy standouts were relatively low average power hitters with a good deal of speed. The word relative is key however, as a .300 batting average in 1968 is more like a .335 average in today’s batting environment. As we did with the 1970s, here are a few examples of Fantasy Era players and their FBHOF scores:

• 90+ Points: Only two players have ever amassed 90 or more FBHOF points: Randy Johnson and Barry Bonds
• 80-89 Points: 7 Players are in this grouping, think Roger Clemens
• 70-79 Points: 15 players score in this bucket, the most common. Think of them as the average FBHOF’er – Ryne Sandberg, Jeff Bagwell, and Curt Schilling types.
• 65-69 Points: 12 Players. The low-enders such as Don Mattingly and Jose Canseco
• 52-64 Points: Only pitchers can score as low as 52 and get elected, David Cone is a great example

The ten best players of the 60’s were all Outfielders, Starting Pitchers, and First Basemen. Before admiring this group, a few words on the best of the rest at each position.

Catcher – Johnny Bench had the highest average peak score of the 1960s, but only played in 1968 and 1969 and two years a dynasty does not make. When looking at the 1970s, his FBHOF score was a fine 68.61 and adding these two new seasons in jumps his score up to 76.7, 24th best all time regardless of position.

The best fantasy catcher of the decade was Joe Torre. His 68.6 FBHOF points is well within the range of Hall of Fame criteria and he was at his best in 1964 with 13.1 FBHOF points. He batted .321 with 20 HR, 87 R, and 109 RBI. Torre also has two other 10 point seasons and currently sits second all time at the position. This is a bit unfair though, since his best season was as a third baseman in 1971.

Second Base – There are no offensive stars here as only two times did a second bagger record 10-points in the entire decade. In 1961 as a rookie, Jake Wood stole 30 bases and scored 96 runs amassing 12.0 FBHOF points in the process. Two years later, Tony Taylor batted .281 with 102 runs scored for exactly 10.0 FBHOF points. Neither had noteworthy fantasy careers however, and the prize for best of the decade falls to Don Buford. While never a star, he did have four seasons of 7.7 or more points and his peak 5-year average of 7.5 points is easily best in the decade.

Third Base – No player at the hot corner meets FBHOF requirements but Ron Santo comes awfully close. The life long Chicagoan scored between 10.9 and 12.5 FBHOF points each year between 1963 and 1968, with an overall score of 63.6, 5th best all time from what we’ve investigated. He was routinely capable of 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 90 Runs Scored.

Shortstop – While not as weak of a position as their middle infield counterparts, the shortstops of the 1960’s weren’t very good either. The best of them was Maury Wills, he of the best fantasy stolen base seasons ever.

Closer – 32 saves was the highest recorded in a single season, and Hoyt Wilhem reached 152 on the decade.

Top-10 Players of the 1960s

10. Bob Gibson, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 12.9
Overall FBHOF Points: 71.6

Though still great at the start of the 1970s, Gibson turned in his finest work between 1966 and 1969. In total, the pitcher had seven 10+ FBHOF points seasons, tied for 5th best we’ve seen. He recorded the 6th best pitching season of the decade in 1968 – 22 W, 0.85 WHIP, 1.12 ERA, 268 K.

9. Jim Bunning, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.0
Overall FBHOF Points: 68.5

Bunning won at least 17 games six times between 1961 and 1967 and was incredible during the last two in which he averaged 18 W, 1.02 WHIP, 2.35 ERA, and 252 K’s

8. Orlando Cepeda, 1B
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.6
Overall FBHOF Points: 72.2

Went .311 with 46 HR, 105 R, 146 RBI, and 12 SB in 1961. Averaged a very good 31 HR, 93 R, 105 RBI, and .315 Average in his next best four years.

7. Don Drysdale, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 13.8
Overall FBHOF Points: 71.7

Had three 14+ FBHOF seasons between 1960 and 1964. During these three years he averaged 19 W, 1.05 WHIP, 2.62 ERA, 238 K’s. During the decade Drysdale won 18 or more games four times; had an ERA under 3.00 seven times, and a WHIP better 1.20 eight times.

6. Lou Brock, OF
Peak Avg in Decade: 3.9
Overall FBHOF Points: 83.1

His career spanned 18 years and was very good in both the 1960’s and 1970s. In the earlier part of his baseball life from 1962 to 1969 he totaled 89.2 FBHOF points, and ended his career in 1979 with an additional 85.6 FBHOF points. Between 1964 and 1974 he recorded at least 10 FBHOF points per season for 11 straight seasons. 1967 was his finest - .299 AVG, 113 R, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 52 SB.

5. Juan Marichal, SP
Peak Avg in Decade: 14.8
Overall FBHOF Points: 79.4

A devastating pitcher in both 1963 and 1965, but was only an elite fantasy pitcher for a total of 5 seasons. His 5 year peak ranks 6th all time among starters, during this stretch he averaged 23 W, 1.00 WHIP, 2.29 ERA, and 225 K’s.

4. Frank Robinson
Peak Avg in Decade: 15.5
Overall FBHOF Points: 80.1

Played from 1956 through 1976 but his greatest seasons came in the 1960s. They are prolific enough to admire individually:

1962 – 17.8 Pts, .342 AVG, 134 R, 39 HR, 136 RBI, 18 SB
1966 – 16.4 Pts, .316 AVG, 122 R, 49 HR, 122 RBI, 8 SB
1961 – 15.9 Pts, .323 AVG, 117 R, 37 HR, 124 RBI, 22 SB
1965 – 13.6 Pts, .296 AVG, 109 R, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 13 SB
1964 – 13.6 Pts, .306 AVG, 103 R, 29 HR, 96 RBI, 23 SB

3. Willie Mays
Peak Avg in Decade: 16.4
Overall FBHOF Points: 88.5

Only two batters since the 1960s have recorded 5 seasons of 15.5 FBHOF points. Given that Mays’ career started in 1951 and has five Top-5 MVP seasons during the decade, it is safe to assume he’ll end up with more. His power was awesome, reaching 40+ home runs four times in the 1960s. Two others matched this accomplishment, but Harmon Killebrew batted .267 and Hank Aaron is next up on this list.

2. Hank Aaron
Peak Avg in Decade: 16.8
Overall FBHOF Points: 92.9

Aaron is the new single season record holder for most FBHOF Points in a season for a batter. In 1963 he went .319 with 121 R, 44 HR, 130 RBI, and 31 SB for 19.7 FBHOF points. He had eight additional seasons of 14 or more FBHOF points, reaching the 30-HR plateau an incredible eleven times. Like Mays, Aaron too had his share of great seasons in the unexplored 1950s and both have a great chance at being named the greatest fantasy player that ever lived when all is said and done.

1. Sandy Koufax
Peak Avg in Decade: 17.5
Overall FBHOF Points: 89.1

In 1994 Greg Maddux was masterful, and few pitchers have dominated batters as often and as easily as he did. In 202 innings batters were held to a .502 OPS (.207 / .243 / .259) and routinely looked silly getting bad wood on the ball. His ERA was 1.56 and his WHIP 0.90, only Doc Gooden had a better ERA during the fantasy era and nobody topped his WHIP until Pedro Martinez in 2000. The Mad Dog, in a strike shortened season, gave up 3 runs or less in 24 of his 25 starts (13 of which were 1 run or less).

He was unhittable. From a fantasy standpoint, the only knock on his season was a relatively low 156 strikeouts. This mattered little in real-life, but this K/9 rate of “just” 6.95 did hold back his fantasy scoring.

Keep this season in the back of your mind. Now picture the same thing only with the pitcher punching out 382 batters, almost two and half times as many, then picture that same pitcher doing it three times in four years.

Sandy Koufax’s FBHOF score surpassed 20 points, a new record in and of itself, three times - in 1963, 1965, and 1966. His fantasy lines:

No player in fantasy history (that we’ve seen) has been remotely as good as Koufax during their three year peaks. The Top-10 three year peak scores:

20.8 – Sandy Koufax
17.9 – Randy Johnson
17.5 – Hank Aaron
17.3 – Pedro Martinez
17.1 – Alex Rodriguez
17.0 – Joe Morgan
16.8 – Greg Maddux
16.7 – Frank Robinson
16.7 – Willie Mays
16.6 – Steve Carlton